Trans-Pacific Partnership may do more harm than good for China
Woo Jun Jie and Suvi Dogra say joining US-led initiative may undermine its regional influence
That the Trans-Pacific Partnership has gained significant currency in the Asia-Pacific region became evident when the Ministry of Commerce announced last month that it was studying the possibility of joining the pact. Interestingly, China's decision comes a month after Japan's entry into the negotiations. While the trade agreement promises significant economic benefits and market access, China's interest is more likely to be politically driven.
Negotiations currently involve the US, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan. The partnership has largely been seen as a significant part of the US "pivot" to Asia. This makes it a vehicle for consolidating US interests and influence in the Asian-Pacific region.
Described as a 21st-century agreement, the partnership involves high standards of free trade and policy harmonisation. This poses significant barriers to China's entry and potentially dilutes the economic gains to be realised should China become a member.
Such disincentives, and the need to defer to the US as leader of this Pacific pact, highlight the political aspect of China's interest.
Being part of the partnership would allow China to join in the regional conversation as well as improve ties with the US. Given the ongoing territorial disputes in the East and South China seas, and its own rapid military modernisation, China's participation would help temper its aggressive image and assure its neighbours of its peaceful intent. This could earn Beijing some much-needed diplomatic brownie points, which would complement its global efforts at a charm offensive.
The US, too, seems to be warming to the idea of actively engaging China. At the recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel called "a positive and constructive relationship with China" an "essential part of America's rebalance to Asia".
Importantly, China's decision to consider joining the trade partnership after Japan's own entry into negotiations signals a desire to compete with Japan for regional influence. This comes amid recent efforts by Japan to boost economic ties with Africa, in a bid to counter China's influence and increase Japan's share of trade, investment and resources on the continent.