Dreams of an urban China
Dan Steinbock surveys the challenges that await Beijing as it considers a grand plan to make urban residents of 350 million Chinese villagers. At stake is nothing short of China’s future
When I recently visited Chongqing , the megalopolis of the southwest which already has more than 30 million inhabitants, the sprawling urban mammoth was filled with massive construction projects.
China's future no longer depends only on the first-tier megacities in the coastal regions. Today, the urban growth momentum is in the mainland's second- and third-tier megacities. Despite substantial medium-term challenges, China's short-term outlook will be supported by the wave of reforms that Premier Li Keqiang has promised - particularly the impending urbanisation plan, and the highly anticipated reform of the hukou, or household registration, system.
In view of current realities, a rapid end to the hukou system would wreck China's economy
For three decades, China's reform and opening-up policies have contributed to unprecedented growth, from Guangdong's urban centres of Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan , to primary cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.
In the past decade, the success of these first-tier megalopolises has spilled over into second-tier cities from Chengdu and Tianjin to Dalian and Shenyang . At the same time, third-tier cities like Fuzhou , Ningbo , Harbin and Wuxi are following in the footprints, along with fourth-tier cities.
Nonetheless, there is a growing consensus that the old urban growth path is unsustainable. Led by Li, China's leadership believes that the new urbanisation should achieve lower urban density, support conservation, and attract more foreign and private investment.
The proposed "new-type urbanisation" is also likely to mean greater recognition for some 260 million migrant workers as urban residents. The issue can no longer wait. By 2030, the overall floating population, most of whom are rural migrant workers, could exceed 300 million.