Opinion | This July 1, we will be marching to the beat of different drums

How many will march to mock Leung Chun-ying as a despised leader who should be dumped? How many will attend loyalist-organised events to mock the marchers as turncoats who would rather undermine the government than celebrate the 16th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China? On Monday, we will know.

Turnout size takes on extra weight this year. For the first time, the loyalists are competing head-on with the July 1 marchers for hearts and minds with carnivals, shopping discounts and a pop concert. March for democracy under the sweltering sun or shop for discounted designer clothes in air-conditioned comfort? That is the question.

Organisers will, as usual, inflate turnout numbers. The police will, as usual, deflate them. Former chief secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang, dubbed the "sudden democrat" for staying silent about democracy while in government but becoming passionate about it after quitting, has said she will attend the march. When she joined a democracy march in 2007, she sneaked off to a hair salon after 10 minutes. Well, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. At least, she took the first few steps.

The July 1 protest march has now become a proud Hong Kong tradition. But the main thrust of this year's march baffles me. The annual event made its name in 2003 when 500,000 protested during the dark days of the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic, a property slump, a financial crisis and the government's push to enact unpopular national security legislation. The theme was clear: anger at the inept leadership of Tung Chee-hwa.

Subsequent marches mostly centred on the push for greater democracy. But this Monday's march takes aim more at Leung the man than his policies. Many Hongkongers despise him, that's for sure. They let this cloud their judgment of his achievements.