Asia braced as Kim takes lonely road to absolute power
Daniel Wagner says purges have made N. Korean regime more fractured
When Kim Jong-un took the helm in North Korea in 2011, most observers considered him to be ill-prepared for the job by virtue of his youth and inexperience, and expected the country to continue on a path of bellicose and unpredictable behaviour.
That turned out to be the case initially, but since his knuckles were rapped by China as a result of his February 2013 nuclear test, sabre-rattling against South Korea and the threatened use of long-range missiles against the US, Kim has displayed forcefulness in leadership that has taken the region by surprise.
Having purged both of his designated caretakers - military chief Ri Yong-ho in July 2012 and Jang Song-thaek last month - Kim established his credentials as a strong man while demolishing the transitional power structure established by his father Kim Jong-il.
He may in fact feel more vulnerable than at any time since he assumed power
Over the past two years, a third of the military's generals in the north have been replaced by loyalist generals and party officials, who now hold key positions. That this has occurred in his first two years of power of course demonstrates a certain degree of paranoia, but also an impressive display of power reminiscent of leaders much older, more experienced and well established.
Kim Jong-un's power base has in the process been significantly reduced. Instead of roping in the regime's longest-serving and most loyal members under his leadership, he has alienated significant segments of older party functionaries and military generals. As a result, the regime has become more internally fractured than ever before, with rapidly shifting alliances.
He has removed many of the experienced China hands who promoted trade with Beijing, attracted Chinese investments into the country's special economic zones and managed relationships with key Chinese leaders. This has further strained relations with China, which may now have significantly reduced influence on Kim's future decision-making.
Economic and political relationships with China are likely to either stall or deteriorate in the process.