Just building more roads and rail lines won't ease Hong Kong's congestion
Evan Auyang says to ease congestion, the government can learn from successes elsewhere to encourage more people to switch to public transport and better manage traffic movements
Hong Kong prides itself on running a world-class public transport system, but recently there has been much discussion about worsening congestion and roadside pollution. This is counter-intuitive, given the slight population increase averaging only 0.65 per cent per year during the past decade, while at the same time our railway system has dramatically increased its capacity to carry almost 50 per cent more passengers.
The crux of the problem lies in the city's over-reliance on "supply-side" solutions, where the focus has been on building more railways and roads, without fully exploring "demand-side" solutions that many global cities are now adopting.
This is best explained by the increase in the number of vehicles on Hong Kong's roads, from 524,249 in 2003 to 680,914 in 2013, with private cars accounting for most of this rise, with an increase from 338,930 to 475,752 vehicles. To put this imbalance in perspective, the number of private cars increased by 40 per cent while the population grew by only 6.7 per cent.
As a result of worsening congestion, journey times on KMB's services, for example, have increased on average by over 16 per cent in the past five years alone. Some routes are now forced to operate at average speeds far below acceptable international standards. In particular, the average speed on urban routes in Kowloon has dropped from 15.3km/h to 12.9km/h, while for some routes it has dropped to as low as 8km/h during peak hours - not much faster than walking.
Assuming that KMB's average 16 per cent increase of journey time applies to all franchised bus operators and public light buses, we estimate that the worsening congestion over the past five years has cost Hong Kong over HK$4 billion per year.
Worsening congestion is not unique to Hong Kong. While the city is a recognised leader in applying supply-side solutions, other comparable cities have implemented extensive demand-side traffic management practices that we can learn from.