• Tue
  • Dec 23, 2014
  • Updated: 11:55am
My Take
PUBLISHED : Thursday, 06 March, 2014, 4:08am
UPDATED : Thursday, 06 March, 2014, 4:29am

Robert Chung's Hong Kong polls show pan-democrats are as unpopular as Leung Chun-ying

I have no idea if University of Hong Kong pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu is a pan-democrat. I rather suspect that he is. But I am pretty sure Peter Lee Ka-kit, heir-apparent of Henderson Land and an adviser to Beijing, hasn't really gone through Chung's public opinion surveys before heaping criticism on the pollster for manipulating the public.

First, it's a bit rich for a guy who advises a state that controls and monitors most of the mainland media outlets to accuse someone of public opinion manipulation.

Second, it's not really Chung's polls that create and reinforce the impressions of the unpopularity of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and many of his principal officials, but rather the Hong Kong media's selective reporting of them. This is why you really have to look at all the polls that Chung's centre at HKU has conducted, including those on lawmakers and political parties. Let's see some numbers from those HKU polls that may surprise you.

Leung's February rating drops 1.5 points to 46.4 out of 100. That makes him pretty unpopular, right? Give or take one point for a margin of error and he has similar ratings, polled in mid-January, as pan-democrats Emily Lau Wai-hing, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho Chun-yan. Of the four top-rated lawmakers, none belongs to the pan-democratic camp: Tsang Yok-sing (59.4), Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (52.7), Michael Tien Puk-sun (52.6) and brother James Tien Pei-chun (52.2). The banana-throwing, protest-prone Albert Chan Wai-yip, "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man range between 34 and 38.8.

The last poll for political parties, conducted in October last year, shows that not a single party rates above 50. The Civic Party, Democratic Party and the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong range between 45 and 47 points. The unpopularity of the League of Social Democrats (37.8) and People Power (36.3) simply tracks that of Long Hair and Chan.

But the media tends to over-report Leung's ratings while under-reporting those of lawmakers and their parties. If anything below 50 means being unpopular, a reader of Chung's polls would conclude the public is disillusioned with the government as much as with the pan-democrats and their parties.


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John Adams
Mr Lo : As I walk about the streets of HK and look in the faces of "Mr Average", whom I assume Robert Chung / HKU have accurately polled (no-one ever called me for a poll !) I wonder what Mr Average makes of all this "mess".
I can only conclude that Mr Average is pretty much p*******d off with all that is happening in government these days, starting with with our inane FS and his doom/ gloom pronouncements which are pure B ... l S ... t . ( Read Tom Holland ! )
Mr Average is more concerned about hopes for the future, and so am I .
CY has not yet had the freedom to engineer hopes for the future because his hands have been tied by un-doing 10 years of mis-management of HK.
To those who say "down with CY" I say " would you prefer 5 years under Henry Tang, who would only have still furthered the cause of the property cartels? "
One of the downside consequences of universal suffrage is that the general electorate have a very short memory span, sad to say.
The clowns who constantly yap down with CY are the same clowns who yap down with Tung, which have done only the best for HK in mind. But of course the typical HK hypocrite who asked tung to kill the property bubble and move the HK economy from property centric to diversification, only is too happy to change slogans when Tung did what they want, kill the dam property bubble and tried to build other industries, Chinese medicine, tech, etc. Seriously not being able to vote have played well in the typical HK hypocrite hands. Can you imagine HKers being held responsible for THEIR OWN DECISIONS? ooo right after Tung Hkers got what they want again with Tsang - High property prices, utterly noncompetitive economy which specializes in building over price shoe boxes and providing world class money laundering services and now they realize that this is a dead end....... so who's fault is it again? definitely not the typical average HK hypocrite.
Dai Muff
Therefore Beijing has absolutely nothing to fear from allowing full democracy.
I support full democracy, but I would NOT vote for most of the pan democrats, certainly not the most extreme, and - according to you and these polls - nor would most Hong Kongers.
Thanks for stating that case Mr Lo.
Let's see the anti-democrats explain their way out of this one.
"..... but rather the Hong Kong media's selective reporting of them (the poll results)...Oh so TRUE!
Thanks Alex ... good article
The polled individuals seem to fall into three bands – 30s, 40s and 50s. They almost reflect neatly the type of job and not the performance how public rates them. The 30s are make-believe politicians, 40s are politicians and the 50s are a mix-bag of trade representatives and politicians.
It is the 50s which is the exception of which Tsang Yok-sing (59.4), Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (52.7) get their high score because of their performance,
For an increasing pluralistic society of different ideology, a rating in the 40s may not be that unrespectable. And since Hong Kong basically is a city of trades, there is no reason Michael Tien Puk-sun (52.6) and James Tien Pei-chun (52.2) being representatives for various trades wouldn’t score high. In fact nothing much these two have contributed beyond the trades' affair.
The polls by Dr. Chung if can’t reflect the performance fully, they may be just a perfunctory act of very little value to Hong Kong public. Unfortunately the media use of the poll has trumped up its usefulness. The data reflects popularity by type of job mostly.
Assuming Dr. Chung's surveys used appropriate random sampling methodology, the results are quite reassuring. Extreme views have less support, and a plurality of HKers seem supportive of the performance of middle-of-the-road politicians and parties. This should put the rest the fear-mongering of the CCP apologist crowd, who like the suggest (without any substantiation) that Hkers if given full democratic rights would run the city off a cliff. They would have us believe that the extreme voices would hold sway, when in fact the majority of HKers view them unfavourably. Sometimes, you just can't beat the facts. Now we shall see if CCP apologists are capable of grasping reality.
To Ant Lee,
I don't.
Please give support(s) to your statement. A frivorous posting if without one.
Dai Muff
A very good argument for allowing democracy. Probably an accident.
“the media tends to over-report X while under-reporting Y”
that’s why editors and reporters so jealously protect
their excessive and undeserved freedom of the bias
most though not all reporters began their biased reporting career
with unrealistic grudge or envy
towards the established meritocratic order
where they’re usually ranked near the bottom
an example is MP’s Emily
a page dedicated to gossips heard in central
that used to be written by a “woman”
who promoted herself syrupily as “愛美麗”
depicting central affairs from a wongtaisin angle
scmp’s mr shangkong looks like her cousin
there are also many veteran commentators
whose only talent is their addiction to slogans
about freedom equality democracy …
perceived in the scholarism manner
as these opinion pied pipers gather followers
they can’t be ignored by political leaders
thus democracy in HK becomes democrazy




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