China's coal addiction a threat to its energy security
Joern Huenteler says it must innovate to depart from unsustainable path
The year 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic, is a momentous date for China's leadership. When Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the Chinese dream, he picked it to be the year when China will reach the status of a "rich" and "strong" country. As it happens, current trends are that 2049 may also be the year when China runs out of its main energy source: coal.
So far, the government has been too timid in its attempts to cut its dependence on coal in the energy sector and develop meaningful alternatives. Only a grand push for energy technology innovation can set the course for a secure and clean energy future.
Without a policy shift, China will depend on fuel imports for most of its energy consumption
China's coal consumption has grown rapidly in recent years, and is now far larger than anything the world has ever seen, with more than 3.5 billion tonnes per year. Coal provides more than two-thirds of China's total energy, and four-fifths of its electricity. Most of it is mined domestically, making China the world's largest coal producer.
But coal use has its limits; the media have focused on coal's impact on air quality as well as water resources, not just in the coal-mining provinces but also the large cities.
The fact is that the current rate of coal production growth is unsustainable. Data from the World Energy Council shows that China's proven coal reserves will last 34 years given its annual production rates, based on figures for 2011. That is down from about 100 years just a decade ago and means China will have exhausted its reserves by 2049, if it keeps going at the current rate.
The exhaustion of domestic coal reserves will have profound implications for China's economic development and its international relations. The Ukraine crisis offers a glimpse for Chinese leaders into a future they surely want to avoid.