Authorities must prepare for worst-case scenarios of Occupy Central

By failing to prepare," said Benjamin Franklin, "you are preparing to fail." As the much hyped plan by activists to occupy the Central district, in the hope of forcing Beijing to grant their demands for universal suffrage, draws ever closer, the authorities will be readying themselves. If thousands of protesters occupy Central's main roads and paralyse the economy, the police, quite clearly, cannot tolerate this. Contingency planning will, by now, be well advanced.

Although Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and his team have been criticised for describing Occupy Central in advance as unlawful, it would be strange if they did not, given that the wilful obstruction of public places is a criminal offence. After all, civil disobedience involves law-breaking, and, notwithstanding a peaceful intent, there is always a possibility that things will turn ugly. If radical elements hijack the event and resort to force, as happened, for example, in June when the Legislative Council's chamber was stormed during a committee meeting on new town development, tensions might rapidly escalate.

No government can be expected simply to acquiesce in civil disobedience designed to damage the economy and force change. It is little wonder that some ministers have, to set an example, signed up to Robert Chow Yung's anti-Occupy Central campaign. They would, in any event, have received legal advice from the Department of Justice as to the status of the proposed occupation, and whatever ministers have said will have reflected the advice given.

The police, of course, will be on the front line, and their preparations are already well advanced. In June, Security Secretary Lai Tung-kwok promised "robust action to uphold the rule of law and maintain public safety and public order", and anti-riot drills have been held in the Tseung Kwan O Industrial Estate. Worst-case scenarios have been confronted, including the possibility of officers having to face petrol bombs.

During the protests against the World Trade Organisation meeting in the Convention and Exhibition Centre in December 2005, the police mobilised some 9,000 officers, roughly a third of their regular strength, to handle over 10,000 protesters, and a similar deployment may again become necessary.

The Department of Justice, likewise, will be bracing itself. A dedicated team of experienced prosecutors will be necessary, familiar with the public order laws and the human rights judgments, and available to provide the police with urgent advice around the clock.

Once cases arrive for possible prosecution, they will need to be processed as expeditiously as possible, with backlogs being avoided. In deciding whether to prosecute, sound judgment and common sense will be required, over and above the threshold test of evidential sufficiency. After all, even if there is enough evidence, it may not be in the public interest to prosecute, and, where possible, prosecution should be a sanction of last resort.