My Take | Paying the price of miscalculation

Wars are rarely won by superior genius or strategy. More often, it's by the side that makes fewer fatal errors. The current stand-off between Occupy protesters and the government is a case in point. It's instructive to consider the cascades of errors, failures and miscalculations that both sides have made so far. After all, it's we the people who have paid the price, and pay it still.

Let's start with the so-called referendum, dreamed up by Occupy Central's Benny Tai Yiu-ting as an exercise in civic moderation. After a round of voting by their own self-selecting insiders - Tai's own version of a nominating committee? - they eliminated all the moderate and realistic reform proposals and chose three that focused on public nomination, deemed unconstitutional by many experts on both sides of the political divide.

That raised serious doubt in the public's mind about Occupy, while painstaking efforts by Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor to build support for more realistic reform goals were bearing fruit.

But all that came to naught for the government when, out of the blue, Beijing issued its white paper. In itself, it did not spell out anything new in mainland-Hong Kong relations, but it was enough for the pan-dems to cry mainland interference. When Beijing's reform proposal finally came, the pan-dems could claim all their suspicions were confirmed.

But before Occupy could start, student protesters stole their thunder and it has never recovered. Tai is now largely irrelevant. When police fired tear gas, public and international opinion quickly swung behind the students. The students, however, overplayed their hand. Seeing there was no blood on the streets, the foreign press quickly lost interest. Traffic blockages and damage to businesses led grass-roots segments to turn against the protesters. Even the Federation of Students admits it needs to open some roads. But many protesters say the federation doesn't represent them.

But just as the government regains some ground, Lam called off talks with students and flew to meet mainland honchos instead. That infuriated protesters and sent them back to the streets. So here we are, trapped in a fight between the misguided and the incompetent.