Why influencing Occupy movement is not in America's best interest
Junfei Wu says US influence on Hong Kong's protests may harm America's national interests, by weakening reformist Xi Jinping's hold on domestic power and thus endangering China's peaceful rise
When we think about the origins of the Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong, the US National Endowment for Democracy - and its subsidiary the National Democratic Institute - should be considered one of the originators of the student protests in the special administrative region. The organisation means to promote US national interests, but the truth is that its actions could put the US in great peril.
Hong Kong was a British colony with a successful track record of amassing great wealth that captured the attention and imagination of the world, but London never attempted to introduce democracy. It is ironic that Hong Kong today is more democratic than it was during its time under British rule. The first elements of local democracy were only introduced after the agreement to return Hong Kong to China was signed.
The prevailing wisdom is that the Occupy Central movement is in line with US President Barack Obama's "pivot to Asia" strategy. The discontented students, who admire American values of representative democracy, a multiparty system, local self-governance and the like, are challenging Beijing's authority, and paralysing Hong Kong's central business and governmental district. It seems as if this may enhance US soft power, showing to the world that the Americans rule Hong Kong through their ideas, and some students here are willing to be vanguards of Washington's rebalancing strategy in Asia.
Yet, in reality, the movement may bring damage, if not disaster, to America's China policy. The idea of universal suffrage has been sold to the public on the premise that the Communist Party would not suppress the movement by force, and that the party's restraint would enable the democrats to assume power in Hong Kong.
The plan has obviously ignored domestic politics in mainland China, in particular the case of Zhou Yongkang , the first Politburo Standing Committee member, either retired or sitting, to be investigated over corruption and abuse of power since June 1981. Undoubtedly, a large number of his followers and supporters are also under investigation and will be charged in the near future.
Unsurprisingly, such anti-corruption reforms have been put on hold because of the Hong Kong crisis, and the campaign will not gain full momentum again until the party gets Hong Kong's house back in order.
The danger is that corrupt politicians within the party have been waiting for a chance to fight back. If riots break out in Hong Kong, the authority of President Xi Jinping would be correspondingly reduced and those hardliners will take over. To establish and then increase their legitimacy, they will opt for flawed, aggressive policies, rather than the "new type of great power relations" between the US and China, a strategic concept promoted by Xi.