As things stand, Occupy protests could last into 2015

The Occupy movement has been with us for over a month, and there seems to be no way to end the deadlock. More and more people have come to the conclusion that the police will eventually have to clear the occupied sites by force. But this is unlikely to happen in the near future, so the current situation may become normalised for months to come.

The Beijing authorities, and hence the Hong Kong government, appear to have adopted the principle of "no compromise, no blood" for now, which means they are prepared to be patient and wait out the protests. Hong Kong's gross domestic product last year was only about 3 per cent of mainland China's, thus any short-to-medium-term damage to the Hong Kong economy as a consequence of its political turmoil will not hurt China as a whole.

However, Chinese officials have also repeatedly referred to the Chinese saying, "If you refuse a toast, you will be forced to drink a forfeit", which implies that the protesters and pan-democrats who want to do things the hard way are likely to find their wish granted.

The Chinese government claims comprehensive jurisdiction over the Hong Kong special administrative region. If needed, it will not hesitate to abandon its previous policy of granting special favours and concessions to Hong Kong, and quicken its implementation of a plan to develop Shanghai and Shenzhen into international finance centres, which will reduce Hong Kong's role in the Chinese economy. The SAR's economic significance to China has already declined over the years, and it will be further marginalised.

In the eyes of many - or even most - Chinese officials, Hong Kong is like a "spoiled child" best left to its own destiny and undeserving of more concessions and special care. Some businessmen visiting the mainland have brought back stories of Chinese officials harshly criticising Hong Kong in conversations, with some making derogatory remarks.

Meanwhile, some Hong Kong officials have told friends about the cold reception and stern faces that greeted them when they travelled up north to meet their counterparts.

The State Council has made it explicit, in its white paper published in June, that China's sovereignty, security and development interests take precedence over Hong Kong's stability and prosperity. This implies that the latter can be sacrificed in order to safeguard the former. As things stand, there is no immediate need for the authorities to clamp down on the protests, as long as national priorities are not threatened.