Protest movement need not get bogged down by defeatism
Stephen Vines says officials now know a fake democracy will be rejected
Things are now looking distinctly messy for the umbrella movement. The wider democracy movement is divided on where to go next, the government armed with batons and various crowd-control sprays has forced retreats, and even deeply unpopular Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has managed to secure a slight upward blip in his admittedly dismal popularity ratings.
The mood of excitement and thirst for revenge coming from the anti-democratic camp is palpable. Members of this camp are now shedding their hesitancy in calling for heads to be cracked in order to "restore order".
The usual rabble of anti-democrat commentators are busy regaling us about their extraordinary capacity to predict all of the above. Meanwhile, there is a kind of triumphant outpouring from those who have kept their heads down in the past two months but now want their moment in the sun.
This depiction of "victory" for the anti-democrats obscures the bigger picture showing the successful mobilisation of a new generation fighting for the Hong Kong they love and their singular achievement of ensuring that there will be no easy way to impose a system of phony democracy here.
Far more worrying for the leaders in Beijing is that events in Hong Kong have put another, possibly final, nail in the coffin of the "one country, two systems" project originally devised for Taiwan. Last week, admiration for what is happening in Hong Kong helped produce a massive defeat for the mainland-friendly Kuomintang in local elections across Taiwan.
As if this were not enough, the events in Hong Kong have stirred the first-ever major shake-up of the government in Macau, where the leadership lives in fear of something similar occurring on its doorstep.
While Hong Kong's leaders incessantly talk about how the protests have damaged the city's international reputation, the overwhelming evidence from overseas reveals a surge of admiration for the protests and a positive reassessment of the dismal view that this place is little more than some kind of haven for bankers.
In Hong Kong itself, some democrats have lapsed into a mood of despondency but others stress that the outpouring of protest, creativity and commitment bodes well for the future of a place that only recently was overwhelmingly populated by immigrants fleeing from life under a dictatorship. Day-to-day survival was their order of the day and there was little time, or inclination, to be concerned with wider issues of society.
If the umbrella movement has achieved nothing else, it has fundamentally changed the way Hong Kong society sees itself.
Even the anti-democrats, who spare no opportunity to speak disparagingly of the people, have been forced to frame their concerns in a wider social manner.
It is entirely possible that the movement will suffer a brutal defeat in the coming days and that there will be widespread disillusionment among the many people who had their spirits lifted by these protests. But disillusionment and defeatism are an entirely wrong response to what is happening, as something has been set in motion that will not go away.
Even the government must now see how difficult it will be to impose its current plan for fake democracy. Meanwhile, democrats appreciate the difficulty of achieving goals that stretch far beyond the right to elect a genuinely representative chief executive and preserving the freedoms and rights that Hong Kong has enjoyed.
These cornerstones of Hong Kong life are very much under threat but this threat can be countered.
Defeatism is a curse but its cure will be found among those who are looking to the future and refuse to fritter away time worrying about previous setbacks.
