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PLA soldiers practise in a drill. Photo: Reuters

World has little to fear from China's growing military

The facts would seem to speak for themselves: in sheer numbers, China has the world's biggest military.

The facts would seem to speak for themselves: in sheer numbers, China has the world's biggest military, its defence spending has increased tenfold over the past quarter of a century due to annual double-digit growth, and the development of sophisticated hardware and weaponry points to big-picture ambitions. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly exhorted the People's Liberation Army to be ready to win a war, calling for greater modernisation, increased training and improved readiness. Such developments have worried neighbours, who have been boosting the strength of their own militaries and alliances, particularly with the US. But as a report by the American research group the Rand Corporation points out, there is no need for undue concern.

Rand is authoritative and retired Chinese generals have backed its claims. They agree with its assessment that the PLA is not a threat to other nations because of widespread corruption in its ranks, a lack of qualified personnel and insufficient training. The budgetary increases appear impressive, but spending came from a low base and the level of modernisation still has far to go. Put in that perspective, calls for war readiness are more about officers getting their priorities right.

A lack of transparency in the defence budget has prompted suspicions that spending is actually much higher than claimed. Beijing can easily lay such beliefs to rest by giving greater detail, but it is also true that every military has its secrets; the element of surprise is, after all, a crucial part of an effective defence strategy. Regardless, much spending goes on salaries and the modernisation programme still has far to go in replacing outdated aircraft, ships and tanks. The budget falls far short of that of the US, which has by far the world's most advanced military. Instead of looking at how much is budgeted, it would be better to assess spending as a percentage of GDP, and on that score, China's allocation is just 2.0 per cent compared to the 3.8 per cent of the US, Russia's 4.1 per cent and India's 2.5 per cent.

Rand's conclusion that the PLA is not as strong as it is often made out to be is accurate. The PLA answers first and foremost to the Communist Party and its reach beyond border protection remains limited. It is inevitable that as Chinese economic might increases, so, too, will the military's abilities. But it is wrong to dismiss promises of a peaceful rise in favour of a belief that China is a threat to regional and global peace and stability.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Little to fear from China's military
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