Uncertainty over political succession a worry for Singapore

Recent events have cast much uncertainty on the political future of Singapore, exacerbated by the poor health of founding father Lee Kuan Yew and a general election that must take place within two years.

In an article in The Straits Times on March 1, former Singapore prime minister Goh Chok Tong said: "It's not for PM [the prime minister] or the present team leaders to decide who will be the leader. The timing is not right yet. So PM will want to have a few more people [for the new team]." Around the time of the next election - "probably" - the new team would begin to choose "two or three" potential leaders, he said.

Some people have downplayed Goh's statements, saying it was normal procedure for the cabinet to pick its leader, based on the parliamentary system Singapore inherited from its former British colonial rulers.

But Goh is effectively saying Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will probably not play the decisive role in choosing a successor and it will take time before the next leader emerges. This means his succession may not be smooth and predictable.

In contrast, before Lee's father, Lee Kuan Yew, stepped down as prime minister in 1990, it was already known that Goh would be his successor, and that when Goh was prime minister from 1990 to 2004, Lee Hsien Loong was expected to succeed him.

But Goh's remarks reflect his own experiences. Before Goh took over, Lee Kuan Yew said publicly that he had preferred Tony Tan Keng Yam, the current Singapore president, to be the next prime minister. He also ruled out another candidate, S. Dhanabalan, "because Singapore was not ready for an Indian prime minister".

Lee Kuan Yew's comments upset the Indian community, according to the late Singaporean president, Ong Teng Cheong, in an interview in March 2000. However, Lee Kuan Yew left the choice of the next leader to his cabinet, Ong said.