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When the outcome is opposite to what you set out to do, this is known as the "cobra effect". Snakes, once reared, can bite anyone. Photo: AFP

Politicians in China, and elsewhere, should beware the cobra effect

Mike Rowse says political false moves can come back to bite

There is a wonderful expression in English called "The law of unintended consequences", which describes situations where you set out to achieve a particular objective and, whether or not you are successful, you also (or instead) get a different result.

In its most extreme form, the outcome is the opposite of what you set out to do, and this is known as "the cobra effect", apparently after the introduction of a scheme in British India which promised a bounty for people who killed snakes led to citizens breeding more snakes so as to claim the reward.

There are three striking examples of the cobra effect in the news recently. The latest was the sudden pledge by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the run-up to the general election that there would never be a Palestine state during his time in office if he were returned. The statement was popular with some right-wing members of the electorate and Netanyahu's Likud party won.

Presumably these voters found the statement reassuring as a commitment to securing a safe future for the beleaguered country. But to many friends of Israel, the outcome is more likely to create greater risk. In their view, and mine, Israel's future can only be secure when a recognised Jewish state lives peacefully alongside an Arab one. Therefore, the immediate consequence of the election gambit is likely to be growing pressure within European parliaments to formally recognise Palestine within its 1967 borders, as the Swedish government has already done and an approach the UK House of Commons - admittedly in a non-binding vote - has endorsed.

More sadly, a new cohort of Palestinian youth will have drawn the conclusion that there is no peaceful route to a reasonable outcome, and the only way their country can be established is through war.

Another own goal has been scored by the US Congress. Five years ago, agreement was reached on reform to the International Monetary Fund's governing arrangements to grant recognition to the increased role played in the global economy by emerging countries such as China. But, apparently as part of an exercise to "contain" China in the economic sphere, Congress declined to approve the necessary changes.

After half a decade of waiting, China has, not surprisingly, lost patience and announced the formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank under its own leadership. Traditional American allies such as Britain, Germany, France and Italy have rushed to join, despite US pressure not to, and both Australia and South Korea are urgently reviewing their position. So Mr Boehner (leader of the House of Representatives), how do you like them apples? Is that the outcome you were after?

Just to show that no one's record in this area is spotless, we should now consider China's recent efforts to extend its sovereignty to virtually the whole of the South China Sea, irrespective of the traditional rights and boundaries of other countries, by turning submerged reefs into military airstrips and tiny barren islands into occupied communities. Surely a better way to do this would have been to use its economic pre-eminence to achieve de facto control by agreement.

By letting the military hawks in Beijing take the lead in what could have been a predominantly diplomatic exercise, all that has been achieved is that a country such as Vietnam, which fought a long and difficult war to get rid of the Americans, now entertains the US fleet in its ports. The Philippines - a former US colony which closed all the American bases - is seriously considering welcoming them back. Is that what the generals wanted?

Opponents of our chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, should bear the cobra effect in mind. Attempts to use the health problems of one of his daughters as a stick with which to beat him were most unwise, not to mention unethical. Already, one columnist on this newspaper has expressed sympathy for Leung, as indeed many parents are likely to have done, whatever they may think of his policies and performance in other areas. Snakes, once reared, can bite anyone.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Beware misguided strategies and the cobra effect
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