Until there's mutual trust, Hong Kong won't see universal suffrage

So the Hong Kong government has finally released its blueprint for "universal suffrage" for the selection of our chief executive. No one was holding their breath and, to be sure, there were no surprises. What does surprise rational people, however, is that both the Hong Kong government and the pan-democrats think this battle, if not the war, will be won according to the results of opinion polls over the next six to eight weeks. Instead of trying to find a way out of this morass, they are both doing their utmost to swing popular opinion, blaming the other side for this likely political failure. How pathetic.

The result is written on the wall for all to see. This political reform package will not pass; and frankly, if you ask me, that's just as well. Why? Well, let's look at the possible scenarios, and there can only be three. First, the package will pass with a bare four votes from the pan-democrats; second, the package will pass, with some 10 to 14 pan-democrat votes; last, the package will be vetoed.

Let's look at each scenario in turn.

If there are four turncoats, the pan-dems would feel a heavy slap in the face. They would be even more frustrated and irate than when the National People's Congress Standing Committee decision came out last August 31 and would muster all their political might to call for another occupation and all kinds of non-cooperation inside and outside the Legislative Council. They would do their utmost to vilify everyone standing in their way. Students would feel more justified to protest indefinitely and some may even turn to the thus far insignificant "Hong Kong independence" movement. Beijing would feel duty-bound to clamp down and, inevitably, "one country, two systems" would fail or be perceived by all to have failed. In short, it would be Armageddon in the near and mid term. I shudder to think further.

If the package were to get the support of a sizeable number of pan-dems, the same result as above may still ensue but possibly on a lesser scale and Hong Kong may just survive. But, given the intransigent attitude of both sides, with the pan-dems repeatedly refusing to name the price for accepting the package and Beijing bent on stamping its seal of absolute authority, this just won't happen. So we may as well forget about this scenario.

The last scenario is probably the "best", given the dire situation Hong Kong finds itself in. With a "successful" veto, the pan-dems would claim a small victory. Although everyone else would regard it as a pyrrhic victory, judging by the way people reacted after the near failure of the five-district referendum in 2010, the pan-dems would not see it as such. They would thus have little incentive or persuasive power to call for any large-scale protest and, even if they did, it would not last long.