Warnings of China's imminent collapse are - once again - greatly exaggerated
Andrew Leung says despite the dire prognosis from some China experts, the Chinese state and economy remain fundamentally sound - and a prediction of collapse is not supported by facts
Notwithstanding President Xi Jinping's growing power at home and influence abroad, some top American academics are forecasting China's imminent collapse. Their prognosis was rebutted by Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, in a report last month for the Harvard Kennedy School.
Predictions of China's collapse are not new, but the prognosis by some of the world's most respected experts on China carries traction. In Hong Kong, for example, some politicians quietly hope for China's regime change rather than accept the government's reform proposals for universal suffrage.
It is therefore opportune to examine the collapse theorists' contentions. They are largely as follows.
First, the elite seem to be voting with their feet. Some 64 per cent of rich Chinese are emigrating or intending to emigrate, according to a 2014 Hurun research report. More are sending their children to study abroad and buying overseas properties at record levels.
Second, Xi is clamping down on dissent and "universal values" - including constitutional democracy, civil society, free press and neoliberal economics. This manifests insecurity.
Third, lip service is being paid to Xi's mantra of following "the mass line" (serving people first) and of realising the "China Dream".