MacroscopeMERS – taking the fear and putting it in perspective

If I am determined to ignore the great public debate over constitutional reform, there is probably only one other issue at the moment that has a similar power to depress: MERS and the new great pandemic threat.

As for MERS – Middle East Respiratory Syndrome – I think there is bad news and good news. The bad news is that almost certainly in the next 20 years or so, we are likely to be smitten by a pandemic that does serious harm to lots of us around the world.

A true global pandemic is likely to cull millions – maybe hundreds of millions. For example the Black Death that raged across Europe between 1346 and 1353 killed an estimated 75 to 200 million people. The good news is that MERS is probably not “the one”.

And in the course of research it seems I have discovered something new, which I am calling SYPPS: the Six Year Pandemic Panic Syndrome. Exactly six years ago today, I was writing about panic over Swine Flu (H1N1); and six years before that trying to dampen hysteria over SARS.

Of course six years before that we had those graphic photos of mountains of chickens being disposed of in efforts to snuff out Avian Flu. Gosh, we have had a torrid time since Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

I know I should not jest over something as awful as a global pandemic – especially since I only recently stumbled upon, and disposed of, the large stock of Tamiflu pills that I panic bought in 2003. But it really does take a good pandemic panic to remind us of how badly we judge the life-threatening risks around us.