Asia must learn to invest its own savings for growth where it counts - in its youth

Anyone who thinks they can predict the future of Asian finance has to know first how Asia's real economy will be doing. Projections of the future based on past data are notoriously inaccurate. But there are general scenarios that we can paint about the mega trends in the global economy that will certainly shape what will happen to Asia.

Roughly every five years, the US National Intelligence Council publishes scenarios about the future, the latest being for 2030. The key trends are well known, including demographics, urbanisation, technology and social media, globalisation, climate change and growing risks through social conflict - including terrorism, civil disruption and regional wars.

The main trend is the move from a unipolar world to one where America's dominant position has weakened relative to the other major players. Not only are new powers emerging, but also non-state players like the terrorist group Islamic State. This makes coordinated and consistent action much more difficult to manage, which is why there is little agreement at the level of multilateral institutions.

The McKinsey Global Institute has tried to help corporate captains and policymakers frame the future, between now and 2025, into four possible outcomes. The best scenario is globally coordinated and distributed growth underpinned by broadening productivity increases. Next are pockets of global growth with imbalances. Scenario three is low but stable global growth, with lots of muddling through. And the worst is continuing rolling regional crises with volatile and weak growth all round.

Much will depend on what is happening in the near term to stimulus packages like quantitative easing and the outlook for energy prices. Over the long term, the ageing of advanced economies, rapid urbanisation (or labour migration) and technology and global connectivity will shape the final outcome.