For mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, 2016 will bring great challenges and opportunities
The authorities will have to address political and economic uncertainties during a year of leadership changes around the world
The new year does not close the book on the old. Two recent landmark events in Paris set contrasting tones for 2016 – optimism sparked by a positive outcome to last month’s world climate summit, tempered by the horror of November’s terrorist attack that killed 130 people. They set the stage for 2016 to be the year the world must cooperate to confront the reality of global warming and the threat to world order of violent extremism.
Even without these challenges, 2016 would remain a defining year, with a rising interest-rate cycle amid a slowdown in China, the election of a new US president, the first elections for the Hong Kong legislature since it rejected political reform proposals, elections in Taiwan next month that are expected to return the pro-independence opposition to power, and the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in March, which will consider detailed measures to ensure stable economic growth.
Domestically, President Xi Jinping (習近平) needs to deepen his anti-corruption campaign while dealing with the economic slowdown; externally, he faces a more complicated international environment amid leadership changes and continuing tensions in the South China Sea.
Elections here and abroad
In the US, Democratic Party front runner Hillary Clinton is no stranger to Beijing and other world capitals, unlike the field of candidates for the Republican nomination. Front runner Donald Trump has confounded conventional notions of credibility with an unpresidential image shaped by offensive remarks about migrants and women and insultingly undiplomatic criticism of China. That said, the eventual nominee often leaves such rhetoric behind on the campaign trail, and China- bashing is a well-established standby for US election candidates seeking to lay the blame for America’s problems.
In Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou’s policy of opening up to the mainland is not seen to have improved the lives of ordinary people, and his historic meeting with Xi has not dented Democratic Progressive Party candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s lead in the polls. This has enabled her to put cross-strait relations to one side, pledging adherence to the “status quo” and focusing on social and economic “justice”. But ultimately her success as president will depend on developing a framework for managing relations with mainland China.