Beijing should see new political realities in Taiwan as a chance to find common ground with Democratic Progressive Party

The January 16 general elections in Taiwan elevated to power the Democratic Progressive Party in a radical overturn of results from 2008 when the Kuomintang swept the DPP from the presidency, and a dramatic change from the 2012 elections, which saw the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou re-elected and his party retain its legislative majority.

Four years later, the KMT finds itself in a position superficially similar to that of the DPP in 2008, but in reality, far worse. The DPP, post 2008, was a demoralised, badly beaten party. However, it had a trump card that is yet to fully materialise: rapidly changing demographics that leave in ruins the traditional “green” south, “blue” north divide.

Unfavourable demographic trends have converged with KMT’s awful external and internal governance and delivered a stunning blow. This does not have to be the end of the KMT, but, at the moment, prospects for a strong revival appear dim.

There were early indications of the KMT’s coming woes. In the 2010 local elections, it managed to hold on to its Taipei bastion but faced a tough battle in New Taipei City and nearly lost Taichung, in stark contrast with smooth DPP victories in Tainan and Kaohsiung.

The 2012 general election may have had a soothing effect on the party as Ma was re-elected with a comfortable margin and the KMT defended its legislative majority. The KMT capitalised on a campaign emphasising its achievements in relations with Beijing and possible negative consequences for cross-strait relations of a DPP return to power.

However, Ma’s second term became a nightmare, with the avalanche of protests by grass-roots movements, his disastrous attack on legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng, which came back to bite him during the sunflower protests, and the massive electoral defeat in the 2014 local elections, which saw the KMT lose all the major municipalities except New Taipei. The combination of public dissatisfaction with the party and sheer ineptitude of the leadership reached new heights when KMT die-hard Hung Hsiu-chu was hastily replaced as presidential candidate by New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu, even though for months he had categorically rejected such a move.