Like Trump, Hong Kong localists are a wake-up call for the establishment
Bernard Chan says we should not imagine that globalisation – or, in Hong Kong’s case, economic integration with the mainland – are popular with all sectors of society
Like many people, I have been fascinated and shocked by the rise of Donald Trump as a possible contender for the US presidency. Many of his ideas are unrealistic, and he breaks the rules when it comes to basic manners. In theory, he should not be a serious candidate. Yet he is ahead of all his Republican rivals.
I do not expect him to end up in the White House. But the fact that he can get this close to the Republican nomination is disturbing. If so many people are angry enough to support him, something has gone seriously wrong in America. And this mood is not confined to traditional Republican supporters. The success of Bernie Sanders – a socialist – in the Democrats’ race is a sign of broad frustration.
How to renew faith in democracy, amid the spectacle that is Donald Trump
I think this is fairly easy to explain – but the explanation may be difficult for mainstream figures in politics, media, academia and business to accept. Essentially, a lot of our assumptions and beliefs about what is good for the economy might be wrong.
A lot of our assumptions and beliefs about what is good for the economy might be wrong
This is not just about the US. Something similar is happening in Europe. And Hong Kong is also experiencing a backlash against accepted wisdom about development and growth.
Let’s consider a few mainstream ideas. One is that globalisation is, on balance, beneficial. Few people dispute the advantages of free trade – nearly all of us are richer because of it. New digital technology opens up markets, boosting choice and reducing prices. Movement of people across borders spreads new skills and culture. Movement of capital improves efficiency.
Economists, businesspeople, academics and others will accept all this. And many industries, communities and people have enjoyed great gains from these trends in the last few decades. But somewhere in this process, there were bound to be some groups of people who lost more than they gained.
The theory that manufacturing jobs would be replaced by decent-paying employment in services was not always correct. The idea that immigration would enrich everyone’s lives did not always work out. The new financial tools that were supposed to help create wealth contributed to unaffordable housing and crushing student loans.
As the wealth gap has become more obvious over the years, politicians and others have become more concerned; or at least they tried to sound as if they cared. Now, people who feel left behind have lost patience.