Brace yourselves for a Donald Trump presidency
Niall Ferguson says those who think Donald Trump can’t win the US election race need to be reminded of the power of populism in uncertain times, and worry about how he would shape US foreign policy, given the constitutional constraints he would face at home
I am not going to underestimate him again. Back in January, in a moment of weakness, I believed the assurance of a supposed expert that Donald Trump’s campaign for the Republican nomination would fizzle out when “real voting in real primaries” began. I should have stuck to my view that, after big economic shocks, populism surges. Today Trump is the nominee and the entire American political commentariat looks as useless as the economics profession did in 2008. The “econ” models failed to predict the financial crisis. The “pol sci” models failed to predict the political backlash.
For this reason, I am ignoring everyone who now says: “Oh, it’ll be OK.” In the past week, I have heard three bogus reasons to keep calm. He’s not going to win the election. He’ll just be an American Berlusconi, more bling and bunga bunga than the nemesis of the republic. And, hey, he just tweeted a photo of himself eating a taco salad to celebrate the Cinco de Mayo fiesta. He loves Hispanics, really!
Donald Trump seeks fresh start as he pivots toward November showdown with Hillary Clinton
No, no and no again. First, Trump can beat Hillary Clinton. Even if she does not end up being indicted for storing top secret emails on her private server – a felony under the Espionage Act and at least two other statutes – Clinton personifies the political establishment that the public loathes and Trump is running against. And precisely because he is not a professional conservative, but a liberal on a number of social issues, Trump is far more likely to lure white working-class voters away from Clinton than Ted Cruz would have been.
The American Berlusconi? One, this isn’t Italy. Two, Trump can’t afford to forget his election pledges and focus on partying. Remember, the first question a newly elected president asks himself is always: How do I get re-elected four years from now? To quote his adviser Roger Stone: “Having gone out a thousand times to say ‘I’m going to build a wall’, he has to build a wall. He has said he would scrap trade deals; his voters will demand he scrap trade deals. He knows that.”
The only half-decent argument for keeping calm is that the US constitution was purpose-built to constrain a man like Trump. My old friend Andrew Sullivan worries, persuasively, that it is a less impregnable bulwark against tyranny than we assume. But to see why the separation of powers still matters, just consider what Trump says he is going to do if he wins.
