While many people like to dismiss Trump’s posturing and tough trade talk as moronic bluster from a nationalistic candidate, here’s why he has to be taken seriously: first, reducing the trade imbalance with China is a centrepiece of his election platform, and for him to sweep this issue under the rug after his election would represent a major capitulation of his campaign promises and his core beliefs. His entire raison d’être in running for president is that he is “really smart” and a “great negotiator” and will employ the sharpest business minds in the US to renegotiate unfair trade deals, which he believes have cost millions of American jobs.

What would a Donald Trump presidency mean for US trade and diplomacy within Asia?

Third, his negotiating acumen and litigious “take no prisoners” approach to negotiations has been well documented in his best-selling business books, including The Art of the Deal.

Fourth, Trump is acknowledged as a branding and marketing genius, and the way he has leveraged the “Trump” name into a global residential luxury and lifestyle licensing brand as well as his hit reality show The Apprentice point to that. His media-savvy and branding tact was evident during his presidential campaign, where he got the US media to effectively “pay” for his campaign with extensive free coverage, and with his creative use of highly viral tag lines to negatively brand his opponents.

So it’s fair to say that a potential Trump presidency would give China a major case of heartburn at the prospect of a challenging trade renegotiation. Trump would probably begin negotiations with his signature strategy of taking extreme, almost absurd, positions and “walking from the table” many times, and he has already publicly stated that his starting position would be to eliminate the US$19 trillion in US government debt over eight years, in part by correcting the trade imbalances with China.

Given that a trade war with China would upend the world trading system and probably result in a global recession, it’s realistic to assume that Trump’s threats of punitive tariffs on Chinese goods are more of an initial bargaining position, from where he will work his way to more pragmatic solutions. However, to avoid a trade war, China would also need to make meaningful concessions and start buying more American products and strengthen its intellectual property laws and environmental standards.

China seeks to smooth trade ties with United States after Donald Trump’s threat to restrict imports

Ultimately, it’s a matter of who blinks first, and if Trump does not, China has probably more to lose, given that it is the beneficiary of a huge trade surplus, and its manufacturing industries would be devastated, resulting in massive unemployment and social unrest from a huge restive population which has middle-class aspirations. A quid pro quo for gaining trade concessions from Beijing could well see America using their ideological differences on human rights and political and religious freedom, issues raised by previous US administrations, as a bargaining chip to cut a more favourable deal on trade.

What is undeniable is that with a Trump presidency, China would have to face a “new sheriff in town”, who appears to be much more aggressive and determined than his predecessors to rectify the trade imbalance with China, and has an unconventional approach to achieving his goals.

Arjun Sekri is a Hong Kong-based entrepreneur and a freelance financial and lifestyle writer