A Sino-US deal on the South China Sea is difficult, but not impossible

Amid the difficulties in the wake of the lopsided July 12 decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, there lies an opportunity for reducing US-China tension in the region.

China is understandably angry and humiliated by the verdict. The US has wisely urged all states involved to cool their rhetoric and avoid statements and actions that may further antagonise China. And after a decent interval, when the dust has started to settle, the US could put its own rhetoric into action by striking a deal with China.

China has long objected to America’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance probes along its coasts. China’s challenges to these forays have resulted in a series of dangerous incidents such as those involving a US EP-3 plane (in 2001), the Impeccable (2009 and 2013), the Poseidon (2014) and others. The US step-up of freedom of navigation operations has also rubbed salt in the festering wounds to China’s pride.

The US and other claimants, as well as the tribunal, want China to cease its reclamation and “militarisation” of various features. The other claimants, particularly the Philippines, say China should stop harassing their fishermen and their oil exploration vessels. And the US doesn’t want China to declare an air defence identification zone over the disputed areas.

Philippines rejects conditional offer of talks from China on South China Sea dispute

A trade-off could be struck. The US could cut back on or suspend its surveillance missions and freedom of navigation operations. The latter were supposedly undertaken to protect the rights of the international community. But now the tribunal has ruled that no Spratly feature is a legal island and has in essence upheld freedom of navigation in a large part of the South China Sea, such operations may no longer be necessary.