Deployment of US missile defence system gives China less incentive to seek diplomatic solutions
John Kotch says the US deployment of Thaad in South Korea risks upsetting the delicate balance of powers in and around the peninsula, and may make the region more unstable
Thaad, America’s most advanced defence system, recently landed with a political thud on China’s doorstep. At least that’s the view from Beijing, whose strenuous opposition to its deployment to South Korea is rooted in the concern that the anti-missile system’s ability to lock onto its strategic deterrent directly threatens its security, irrespective of whether that is its intended purpose.
For Washington and Seoul, however, the decision to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence unit was justified as an appropriate response to Pyongyang’s continued development of a nuclear deterrent capability, specifically the successful testing of an intermediate-range missile capable of carrying a warhead into space, on a trajectory which could reach US territory on Guam or the Aleutian islands.
South Korea, US agree to deploy Thaad missile defence to counter North’s threat
From an operational and/or technical viewpoint, whether South Korea is the optimal location to intercept an errant North Korean missile is arguable. It is, however, without question disadvantageous in terms of Beijing’s willingness to remain an active diplomatic partner as opposed to a fence-sitter in reining in Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. How much political leverage Beijing is willing to exercise is proportional to how it views its own security stake.
In essence, the trade-off is technical versus political, with reliability a key variable. Based on previous deployments, Thaad has been highly effective in shooting down missiles in the launch phase, utilising kinetic energy rather than explosive power charges to destroy a missile in flight. By contrast, China’s security interests on the Korean peninsula are broader than just the North’s nuclear programme and are subject to political considerations.
China and Russia criticise Thaad missile defence system as destabilising region
These include an unwavering commitment to the political integrity of the North as a buffer zone, pursuing a balanced relationship with both Koreas in the interests of peace and stability on the peninsula, and, finally, using trade with the South, one of China’s most important economic relationships, as a wedge for political advantage.