Why Legislative Council election results will shape Hong Kong politics up to and beyond 2047
Mike Rowse says the outcome will affect the future of the city and its sparring factions in ways more fundamental than the four-year term at stake
It would be a mistake to underestimate the significance of next Sunday’s Legislative Council election. The outcome will play a major role in determining Hong Kong’s political future. The repercussions could extend beyond the immediate four-year term that successful candidates will secure, and shape our course up to and even beyond 2047.
The first question is whether the initial results will be allowed to stand. Returning officers rejected nomination submissions from six candidates and several have launched legal action challenging the decision to exclude them.
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If the courts rule later that the purported powers to ban them did not in fact exist, or were unlawfully exercised, then there will be a round of by-elections at a time when the political temperature will be red hot.
The second question, once the final outcome is known, is whether or not the pan-democrats will have been successful in retaining their one-third blocking minority. This is important because changes to some key practices and procedures – including electoral reform itself – require a two-thirds majority.
In elections immediately after the handover, the pan-democrats could muster around 60 per cent of the popular vote. This has gradually softened to about 55 per cent, which is still enough to give them 24 or more of the 70 seats. But there is a danger of further softening, which would weaken their grip on the 35 geographical seats and five super seats, where they have done well in the past. In addition, pro-administration forces are making a determined bid to prise away some of the functional constituency seats traditionally held by pan-democrats. Either way, their hold on the blocking minority is at risk.
Personally, I do not see Occupy as a powerful tool ... The almost non-stop filibustering is a different matter
What are the major factors that could cause a shift in voter sentiment? The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and other pro-government parties have made a big play on the lingering resentment about the disruption caused by Occupy and the extensive filibustering which has slowed or even prevented government business. For their part, the pan-dems have pointed to the manifestly inadequate political reform proposals and lack of progress on livelihood issues.