Why the South China Sea ruling opens a can of worms for maritime claims around the world

The ruling by the arbitral tribunal on the Philippines’ complaints against China has been highly praised and severely criticised by many nations and analysts. But few foresaw the broader and deeper legal and political implications. Indeed, the details of the decision are slowly reverberating around the world like a tsunami – leaving confusion and uncertainty in its wake.

The decision rejected China’s claim to historic title or rights in the waters within its nine-dash line in the South China Sea. This was expected. But what was not fully foreseen is the likely lasting political ramifications for the region and perhaps Asia as a whole.

Indeed, the ruling has reinvigorated a test of political wills between China, which rejected the decision, and the US, which both supports the decision and may “enforce” it as part of its “rebalance” to Asia.

This is a fundamental struggle between preserving the status quo world order, which disproportionately benefits the developed world, and altering the system to the benefit of China and other developing countries.

Security vs economics: Asean countries stuck between US and China in South China Sea row

This increased competition has, in turn, raised tensions and instability in the region with potentially serious implications for peace and human welfare. Indeed, this issue has now become a point of contention in the China-US competition for the hearts and minds of other South China Sea claimants (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam), as well as other Asean members. The pressure has produced a split in Asean, casting doubt on its viability and central role on security issues in Southeast Asia.

China seeks to curb Japanese criticism over maritime issues at talks on sidelines of G20 in Hangzhou

Worse, the contest has become contagious, spreading to China-Japan relations. Japan supported the decision and hinted that it might join the US in freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. In response, China stepped up pressure and tension in the East China Sea and bluntly warned Japan that it would be crossing a “red line” if it did so. Another country caught in the “squeeze” is Australia, already split politically, with burgeoning economic benefits from its relationship with China versus its historical security alliance with the US.

What was not expected was the sweeping revolutionary ruling on the legal status of various features in the Spratly Islands. Challenging conventional wisdom, the tribunal ruled that none of the features in the Spratlys – as well as Scarborough Shoal – can generate 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs) or continental shelves, and are at most rocks entitled to only 12 nautical miles of territorial seas.