Kim Jong-un’s nuclear trajectory only increases Sino-US friction in northeast Asia

The Chinese remain the great enigma when it comes to figuring out whether they’re friend or foe, honourable adversaries or dangerous rivals for power and influence from the Korean peninsula to the South China Sea and beyond.

North Korea’s 5th nuclear test prompts US call for more sanctions

Nobody believes they’re doing much to discourage North Korea’s nuclear ambitions but, then again, nobody thinks they’re encouraging the North Koreans either. When they express their displeasure to the North Koreans over the latest nuclear test, the tone appears sincere and credible – just not too effective.

The problem may be that Chinese leaders themselves are uncertain where they are going, how much power they can afford to wield and how willing they are to risk a confrontation that might turn bloody. Unforeseen dangers lurk everywhere, from the waters off Korea to the Japanese-held Senkakus (Diaoyus in Chinese) in the East China Sea, to the flashpoints of the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

Probably no American is more sensitive to the Chinese puzzle, what to make of it and how to deal with it, than Admiral John Richardson, whose title of “chief of naval operations” means he commands the entire US navy. He says he’s met his Chinese counterpart, had a friendly conversation, and believes the personal relationship is vital to making sure US ships can challenge China’s claim to the entire South China Sea without anyone firing a shot. “We will continue to have access to the South China Sea,” he says, while “minimising uncertainty” and “the risk of miscalculation”.

For now, US warships come and go across the South China Sea without coming to blows with the Chinese, but the future is highly uncertain. What are the Americans to make of China and Russia staging war games together this week in those disputed waters while the Americans remain on the sidelines, observing what’s going on without getting in the way? Might the Americans and Chinese cooperate some day in similar exercises? For now, Richardson warns against “any regional security architecture that excludes China”. Clearly China “is this tremendous growing nation”, he observes. “Part of that global move is to the sea. Future architecture is going to have to include China.”

China, US navy chiefs hold hour-long talks on South China Sea in wake of Spratly sail-by

Just as the Americans and Chinese strive to avoid an open clash in the South China Sea, so they have to exercise the same extreme caution in considering what to do about North Korea. US warships are not encountering the Chinese while staging war games with the South Koreans off the Korean east coast, but they’re not going deep into the Yellow Sea between China and the west coast of South Korea. Although the Chinese do not claim the Yellow Sea, they respond with extreme sensitivity to a strong US naval presence in those waters.