How the US got outplayed in the Asia-Pacific

Mark Valencia says three months after the landmark tribunal ruling against China on South China Sea issues, it is America’s presence – and welcome – in the region that is suddenly looking shaky

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Published: 5:08pm, 5 Oct 2016Updated: 5:00pm, 6 Oct 2016

In the waning days of the Obama administration, the worm may be turning regarding the US military’s welcome in Asia. Indeed, the Obama foreign policy brain trust may be underestimating China’s diplomatic leverage and skill, and overestimating its own.

The current trends are not auspicious for the US. Indeed, we may be seeing a slow but sure seismic shift in US political standing in the region.

This has been invigorated by the region’s reaction to US involvement in the South China Sea issues and the Philippine-China arbitration decision. Ironically, the US encouraged – some say supported – the Philippine legal case against China. It certainly supported the panel’s ruling against China and urged China to adhere to it. But China has rejected the decision and, perhaps to the chagrin of the US, the Philippines is not pushing China to adhere to it.

Under pressure from China, new President Rodrigo Duterte has turned against US military involvement in the Philippines. After a series of anti-US statements, he said a scheduled joint military exercise would be the last because China did not want it.

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte speaks during his visit to the Philippine marines headquarters in Taguig city, south of Manila, last month. Photo: EPA

Is Philippine President Duterte playing the United States and China?

When US defence secretary Ashton Carter visited the Philippines in April, he said his visit opened “a major new era in a longstanding alliance ... I’m proud to say this alliance is as close as it’s been in years”. This statement may now be seen as a bad joke in the corridors of the Pentagon and the State Department. Obviously, Carter and key figures in the Obama administration did not foresee the sea change in the relationship that Duterte would bring. Duterte has subsequently threatened to terminate the 2014 Extended Defence Cooperation Agreement that allows the US to rotate troops into the Philippines for extended stays and to operate facilities on Philippine bases.

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