With their threats to China, Trump and Tillerson are making rookie blunders that will only hurt US credibility

Hugh White says their ill-considered words over the South China Sea and ‘one China’ policy, which underline how little they understand China, will most probably reveal themselves to be empty threats

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Published: 5:45pm, 17 Jan 2017Updated: 7:21pm, 17 Jan 2017

Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson have committed the simplest and most serious mistake in strategic policy – underestimating your adversary. Illustration: Craig Stephens

We should not take Rex Tillerson too seriously when he threatened last week that America would deny China access to its bases in the South China Sea, plainly implying a willingness to use force to do so if necessary. He was not speaking from a prepared text, and his remarks were so ill-informed and foolish that he probably just didn’t know what he was talking about. So this was a gaffe, not a statement of policy.

On Trump’s foreign policy, let common sense prevail

But that doesn’t mean his ill-considered words don’t have serious consequences. They have certainly damaged his credibility. He might have been a very effective businessman, but it is hard to take seriously someone who, as the new administration’s nominee for secretary of state, presents himself to the Senate confirmation hearing so poorly prepared to discuss the most sensitive issue in the most important and difficult bilateral relationship that America has today.

And by damaging his own credibility, his effectiveness in that office, if he is confirmed, will also be undermined.

Watch: Rex Tillerson wants to deny China access to South China Sea islands

The damage goes further, too. Tillerson’s gaffe amplifies the damage already done to the incoming administration’s credibility in managing relations with China by Donald Trump’s threat, repeated late last week, that America might abandon the “one China” policy that governs relations with Taiwan, if it does not get concessions from Beijing on other issues. That, too, should not be taken very seriously, because it is also most unlikely to become US policy.

Both men overestimate US power and underestimate China’s. And they underestimate China’s resolve

So there is a real problem here, and not just for Washington. The foolish threats made by Trump and Tillerson will make it much harder for them to handle relations with China. They make it harder to strike the right balance between firmness and accommodation, which will be needed if America is to constrain China’s growing power and ambition without risking a disastrous conflict.

They increase the danger that, over the coming years, America will find itself facing an impossible choice between going to war with China or abandoning any serious strategic role in Asia. It is easy to assume from the tough tone of Trump’s and Tillerson’s threats that, faced with such a choice, they would opt for war.

But, in fact, they are far more likely to back off in the face of a real risk of war with China, thus weakening America’s position in Asia, and strengthening China’s.

Either way, the consequences of these rookie blunders are very serious indeed for all of us in Asia, as well as for America.

China should beware the trap set by ‘dumb Trump’

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