With Trump leading the US, Asia needs to turn to Roosevelt
Andrew Sheng says Donald Trump’s rise marks a new era of clear self-interest where allies and allegiances change by the tweet. However, emerging Asia has nothing to fear but fear itself
The old order has come to a dead end; it is not even at a crossroads, where you have the option of moving forward. At a T-junction, you either move right or left. Volatility and the range of possibilities have increased, because no one knows which policy and which rule will change with the next tweet.
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There is, of course, no difficulty in picking where Trump will move. Indeed, anyone who says Trump is unpredictable is wrong – he is very predictable. He will do whatever is in his best interest, saying that it is in America’s interest. He will move right, because the populist sentiment has rejected the old leftist liberal order. Our only concern is – how far right will he go?
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Trump’s ascension signals the end of the rule-based era for the public good, with a new era of clear and present self-interest, changing allies and allegiances by the tweet. Allies and foes alike do not know how to react to this new Art of the Deal.
Watch: Xi Jinping defends globalisation at Davos
Crossing the river by feeling the stones was possible when there were still some stones. But crossing the swamp when the waters are murky with crocodiles and leeches will be much more complicated.
I was forced to dust off my copy of German historian Oscar Spengler’s Decline of the West, written between 1911 and 1922, to get a sense of how we should think about this era from a long-term historical perspective. Vastly simplifying his magnum opus, Spengler’s thesis is that when parliamentarian politics fails, history tends to replace disorder with great men like Julius Caesar or Napoleon. Of course, troubled times may also beget despots and decadent failures, like Caligula or Nero, who eventually bankrupted Rome.
Globalisation has not failed. It is the high priests of globalisation trying to deflect the populist anger against anyone but themselves who created Trump.
Second, despite the fact that the dollar is strong and will remain so if Trump gets his economic policies right, the US is still funded by global savings – mostly from Asia. Asia remains the world’s largest and fastest-growing region with the highest savings. We need to channel those savings to Asian markets, even as the US and European banks retreat home.
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As America moves to a new T-(for Trump) junction, the choice is not between left or right, but between a Great America or a small-minded America.
Time for Asians to think and act for themselves.
Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective