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Opinion

Can Asia remain stable amid the political shock waves from the West?

Daniel Wagner says while better prepared than in the past, regional governments and the people must avoid overreacting to tumultuous events emanating from the US and Europe

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President Xi Jinping leads Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during a welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, last October 20. The question is whether other Asian countries traditionally allied with the US will also now tilt towards China. Photo: AP
Daniel Wagner

As the world continues to gyrate from the political paradigm shift under way with the rise of “alternative” political movements, many countries will struggle to adjust to the “new normal”.

For developing nations and emerging markets, the stakes are particularly high as their ability to continue to grow economically and maintain social order will often depend on the continuation of a delicate balance between the rights of individuals, protection of domestic industries, minimising income disparity and maintaining security. This becomes more difficult when the status quo elsewhere is being disrupted. Governments that fail to anticipate the pace and depth of change may, in the end, fall.

Several countries hold the key to how political change manifests itself in Asia in 2017 and beyond. Apart from the obvious influence of China, India and Indonesia, some of the smaller and hitherto less influential nations may be crucial to just how dynamic political change in the region becomes. The Philippines has already proved it can punch well above its weight, by dramatically altering its political, security and military status quo. Its embrace of China has succeeded in upending decades of bilateral and multilateral norms.
Visiting Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak ahead of a meeting in Putrajaya, outside Kuala Lumpur, on February 6, 2015. Photo: AFP
Visiting Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak ahead of a meeting in Putrajaya, outside Kuala Lumpur, on February 6, 2015. Photo: AFP
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Malaysia also has the potential to alter the landscape. It, too, has extended its hand to China. Under Prime Minister Najib Razak, its simultaneous embrace of the country’s Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party raises questions about whether it may ultimately adopt some elements of Islamic Law, which Indonesia is also in the process of doing.

Outrage in multi-ethnic Malaysia as PM Najib’s government backs Islamic law

Will other countries with a historical orientation towards the US change that stance, as the Philippines has done, and shift towards China? Will the embrace of some aspects of Islamic law in Malaysia and Indonesia result in an inexorable move toward Islamic law more broadly with time?

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