2017, the year Chairman Xi Jinping will come into his own
Douglas H. Paal says after five years of consolidating power, the Chinese leader will emerge stronger than ever before. For this year at least, Xi Jinping will play the role of global leader, and the world will be better for it
How do we explain the twists and turns in behaviour? On the US side, most of what is happening is transparent. Donald Trump ran an outsider’s campaign and now seeks to upend many of the establishment’s sacred cows. Subject to constitutional checks and balances, however, Trump is increasingly likely to be hemmed in and restrained by realities as his term plays out.
In China, by contrast, politics is mostly conducted in a Beijing black box, and I think what we are seeing from outside that box is the empowerment of Xi. To paraphrase Winston Churchill after the battle of El Alamein, we are witnessing not the beginning of the end, as Xi enters his fifth year in power, but the end of the beginning. Beijing is saying goodbye to Xi Jinping Operating System 1.0, and orchestrating the roll-out of Xi Jinping 2.0, to finish his consolidation of power later this year at the 19th party congress. Unlike American presidents who tend to weaken with time, Chinese leaders tend to do the opposite.
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Clearly, that situation is set to change. Since the middle of last year, close observation showed that new officials are being promoted. Xi is repositioning loyalists and those who will become loyal to him so as to govern with a firmer hand in his second five-year term in office.
For the short term, certainly this calendar year, this is probably good news for the rest of the world as Xi plays the role of a world leader. Thus we saw Xi break with precedent to attend the Davos summit, adopting a striking – and many would say a hypocritical – globalist tone in contrast with Trump’s new economic nationalism.
Then we received the announcement of Xi’s first presidential phone call with Trump, in which Xi persuaded Trump to honour the “one China policy”, after the US leader called this sensitive policy foundation into question in December. This was followed by a successful visit to Washington by State Councillor Yang Jiechi ( 楊潔箎 ). All signs suggest preparations are being made for an early Xi visit to the US.
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As I noted above, this is probably mostly good news for the outside world, as China’s leader tries to put his best face forward.
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But there is another edge to this sword. A leader with such sweeping claims to power and authority must also vigorously defend China’s most sensitive interests against perceived insults.
If, for example, Trump throws up punitive tariffs and barriers to trade against China, we should fully expect Xi and China to reciprocate. If China senses an erosion of its principles on the sensitive issues surrounding Taiwan and the East and South China seas, we should not be surprised if Xi lashes out in response.
And when the second term of party general secretary Xi begins at the end of the year, we should remember that he will already be empowered and less in need of demonstrating his diplomatic savvy and more in need of demonstrating results.
Some of that could be very uncomfortable for those of us outside China.
Douglas H. Paal is vice-president for studies and director of the Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace