Another leadership election in Hong Kong, another bureaucrat in charge – and five more years of the same

We don’t need a crystal ball to see what will happen next Sunday: a bureaucrat will be elected Hong Kong’s next chief executive. The mirror on the wall is Beijing, and the fairest of them all has been pre-determined, pre-ordained, and pre-“hugged”, just so there is no ambiguity. There’s no need for spoiler alerts.

Beijing did its favoured candidate no favours by campaigning and canvassing for her. The usual suspects have fallen in line and made the requisite over-the-top proclamations of support. Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor did not have a choice in the matter so let’s not hold her responsible for this. She probably feels offended, too – to be given such strong, unsolicited support suggests a lack of confidence in her to win the election on her own merit.

But Lam should not despair; the lack of confidence may not be personal. As some see it, Beijing gave up trying to be subtle about what it wants after the July 1 march in 2003 that eventually took down Hong Kong’s first chief executive. Beijing is not going to take any chances – it has no wish to be accommodating, and expects the same of the city’s leader. The likes of Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and John Tsang Chun-wah are just too politically risky for Beijing. Lam, by contrast, played her cards right.

The former chief secretary might as well take a chill pill over playing a poor second in the popularity stakes to her former colleague in the cabinet. John Tsang clearly has the advantage of not being the “anointed one”.