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Opinion

From Brexit to Frexit? Why Germany holds the key to keeping the EU together

Andrew Sheng says populism has yet to overcome post-Brexit Europe but fragmentation is still a possibility, which is why top economy Germany must be more generous in leading the euro zone out of problems in finances and job creation

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Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany (in white jacket) poses with European Union leaders during a special summit to mark the 60th anniversary of the bloc's founding agreement, the Treaty of Rome, at the Capitoline Hill in Rome on March 25. Photo: AFP
Andrew Sheng
Global financial markets were relieved when centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron led in the first round over his right-wing rival Marine Le Pen, with a run-off set for May 7. The populist tide of Brexit and Trump has yet to sweep through Europe, as the French followed Austrian and Dutch voters in saying no to radical change.

But a populist swing is doubtless on, driven by high unemployment, terrorist attacks, immigration concerns and depression in southern Europe.

The Dutch have rejected populism, now it’s the turn of the French and Germans

France is the second-largest economy in the EU after Germany, and their partnership is still the core of European stability. Le Pen has pledged to have France exit the euro and maybe even the European Union. Since French voters are deeply divided and many remain undecided, the risk of Frexit are not zero.

Watch: France holds first round of presidential election

The EU is a project of political union through monetary union, a dream which arose out of the ashes of the second world war. But, as Nobel-Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said, the EU made a “fatal decision” in 1992, to “adopt a single currency without providing for the institutions that would make it work”.
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The euro zone did create the second-largest reserve currency, and the early years did witness a period of great trade and economic integration.

But, by 2007, when the US subprime crisis triggered the European debt crisis, the euro zone’s flaws and institutional inadequacies were all brutally exposed. First, although there was a single central bank, there was neither a fiscal nor a banking union, meaning there was no centralised tax and banking policy to deal with failing national banks.

Eurogroup chief regrets ‘drinks and women’ remark about Mediterranean members but won’t quit

As the southern economies of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain tried to bail out their banks, they incurred massive sovereign debt, which could only be sustained by ever lower interest rates.

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