Doklam dispute shows India must pick its battles, as China seeks to be the centre of the world
Shyam Saran says while China’s rise is remarkable, a recast history is put forward to legitimise its claim to Asian hegemony, and its Doklam stance aims to weaken the regional alliance between India and Bhutan
Managing the China challenge requires understanding the history of the Chinese civilization and the world view of its people, formed over 5,000 years of tumultuous history.
China’s pursuit of predominance at the top of the regional and global order, with the guarantee of order, has an unmistakable American flavour. It also echoes Confucius, who argued that harmony and hierarchy are intertwined.
China uses templates of the past as instruments of legitimisation, to construct a modern narrative of power. One key element of the narrative is that China’s role as Asia’s dominant power restores a position the nation occupied through most of history. The period from the mid-18th century until China’s liberation in 1949, when the country was reduced to semi-colonial status, subjected to invasions by imperialist powers and Japan, is characterised as an aberration. The tributary system is presented as artful statecraft evolved by China to manage interstate relationships in an asymmetrical world. What is rarely acknowledged is that China was a frequent tributary to keep marauding tribes at bay. The Tang emperor paid tribute to the Tibetans as well as to the fierce Xiongnu tribes to keep the peace.
History shows a few periods when its periphery was occupied by relatively weaker states. China itself was occupied and ruled by non-Han invaders, including the Mongols, from the 12th to 15th centuries, and the Manchus, from the 15th to 20th centuries. Far from considering these empires as oppressive, modern Chinese political discourse seeks to project itself as a successor state entitled to territorial acquisitions of those empires, including vast non-Han areas such as Xinjiang ( 新疆 ) and Tibet.
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Thus, an imagined history is put forward to legitimise China’s claim to Asian hegemony, and remarkably, much of this is increasingly considered as self-evident in Western and even Indian discourse.
Little in history supports the proposition that China was the centre of the Asian universe commanding deference among less civilised states. China’s contemporary rise is remarkable, but does not entitle it to claim a fictitious centrality bestowed upon it by history.
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The belt and road also seeks to promote the notion that China through most of its history was the hub for trade and transport routes radiating across Central Asia to Europe, and across the seas to Southeast Asia, maritime Europe and even the eastern coast of Africa. China was among many nations that participated in a network of caravan and shipping routes crisscrossing the ancient landscape before the advent of European imperialism. Other great trading nations included the ancient Greeks and Persians, and later the Arabs. Much of the Silk Road trade was in the hands of the Sogdians who inhabited the oasis towns leading from India in the east and Persia in the west into western China.
Thus, recasting a complex history to reflect a Chinese centrality that never existed is part of China’s current narrative of power.
However, in other metrics of power, with the exception of GDP, China lags behind the United States, which still leads in military capabilities and scientific and technological advancements.
In reality, neither Asia nor the world is China-centric. China may continue to expand its capabilities and may even become the most powerful country in the world. But the emerging world is likely to be home to a cluster of major powers, old and new.
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Any emerging and potentially threatening power will confront resistance. China, like other nations before it, cultivates an aura of overwhelming power and invincibility to prevent resistance.
Despite this, coalitions are forming in the region, with significant increases in military expenditures and security capabilities by Asia-Pacific countries.
Doklam should be seen from this perspective. The enhanced Chinese activity is directed towards weakening India’s close and privileged relationship with Bhutan, opening the door to China’s entry and settlement of the Sino-Bhutan border, advancing Chinese security interests vis-à-vis India.
India has to carefully select a few key issues where it has to confront China, avoiding annoyances not vital to national security. Doklam is a significant security challenge.
Shyam Saran has served as India’s foreign secretary and as chairman of its National Security Advisory Board. This article is adapted from the inaugural lecture delivered by the author at the Institute of Chinese Studies and the India International Centre, New Delhi. Reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu