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North Korea nuclear crisis
Opinion

Why Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ will have no effect, as Kim Jong-un plays chicken with the US

John Power says the North Korean leader’s Guam feint was a predictable act in the regime’s long-running theatre of brinkmanship, milking threats for concessions while doggedly pursuing nuclear ambitions

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Giant portraits of founding leader Kim Il-jung (left) and his son Kim Jong-il form the backdrop for a gathering to sing the praises of North Korea’s ruling family, in Pyongyang on August 15. Photo: Kyodo
John Power
The ongoing war of words between the United States and North Korea is being described as a crisis that threatens to erupt into a full-blown nuclear conflict. Take a step back, however, and the tensions start to look more like theatre, except only Pyongyang seems to know it’s playing a part.
After much bluster, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Pyongyang on Tuesday announced it was suspending a planned missile strike near Guam, so long as Washington didn’t resort to “reckless actions.”
When it comes to the fundamentals, North Korea is surprisingly predictable, despite caricatures of Kim Jong-un as a madman with a finger on the nuclear trigger.
For Pyongyang, ramping up and then diffusing tensions has for decades been a lucrative game

For Pyongyang, ramping up and then diffusing tensions has for decades been a highly lucrative game it knows it can’t lose. It’s a strategy that has allowed an oppressive regime to justify its existence to its own people, while blackmailing the outside world for money, aid and various concessions.

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There’s no better tool for extortion than nuclear missiles, or greater symbol of strength to hold up in defiance of an outside world you want to paint as hostile and dangerous.

It’s not surprising that North Korea is hell-bent on having such weapons, whatever the diplomatic or economic cost imposed by the international community.

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Yet, we continue to flatter ourselves about our level of influence over what has proved to be the most resilient and single-minded dictatorship of the post-cold-war era.

Since Donald Trump’s “fire and fury” threat against the regime last week, many have anxiously asked how Kim might respond to such unusually bellicose rhetoric from a US president, and what can be done to find a peaceful resolution acceptable to both sides.
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