Is the international community ready if North Korea’s nuclear ambitions bring about environmental disaster?
Michael McGrady says the potential for serious release of radioactive materials at North Korea’s nuclear testing site is clear. Less clear is how the international community could, or should, react
Why North Korea will become a nuclear power despite pressure
As countries quickly took to the condemnation bandwagon, some analysis declared that the Punggye-ri site couldn’t withstand any more large-scale nuclear testing on the levels of the September 3 test.
There have been reports throughout the global media suggesting many abnormalities surrounding the testing site, showing an increased threat of cave-ins at the underground testing site. It will take many weeks to gauge radiation readings accurately, but some reports monitoring radiation levels in surrounding provinces indicate an increase.
Still, the North will progress with testing at the same site to spite international pressure. To compound matters, the Punggye-ri testing site has been the main site of all nuclear weapons testing during Kim Jong-un’s tenure as supreme leader. This ultimately is a ticking time bomb.
In my conversations with several experts on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the main sentiment was that nothing is set in stone regarding the international or domestic response. This is also the case for determining the response based on the severity of a potential environmental disaster tied to nuclear testing.
Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, told me the response to a small-scale incident would be manageable for North Korean authorities. Yet, the question remains as to what kind of response – domestic and/or international – a major incident would require.
“It is unlikely that North Korea would seek international help and the international community would likely be conflicted,” Stangarone said. “North Korea would likely be reluctant to accept UN help and be more comfortable accepting Russian and Chinese help, while Russia may be best equipped to deal with any radiation sickness and China would likely become a source of needed supplies.”
An environmental disaster could also hit the North Korean economy hard. Though the region surrounding the testing site isn’t a major agricultural nexus, farming and ranching could be impacted, affecting prices through a drop in production. Another variable is that trade along the North Korea-China border would be affected, as traders from China could see elevated risks.
From the perspective of the United States, feelings of war and diplomacy are mixed; yet the variables, including the environmental ones, are too high to ignore. Thinking of solutions to liberalise the nation’s economy by opening markets and to negotiating the reform of the current dictatorship is needed. Ultimately, diplomacy should reign.
Michael McGrady is an independent journalist and libertarian political consultant