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Shinzo Abe
Opinion

Behind Japan’s election, a right-wing coup against democracy is being staged

Kevin Rafferty says with both Shinzo Abe and challenger Yuriko Koike in favour of constitutional change, all signs point to a revision of the pacifist clause, no matter what most Japanese think

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Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party leader Shinzo Abe is seen with the head of Japan's Party of Hope, Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, during a debate on Sunday. Koike’s placard reads “Injecting hope into Japan”. Photo: EPA-EFE
Kevin Rafferty
Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has called a snap general election claiming he needs a mandate to solve problems, many of which exist because he did not use his last mandate more effectively. Media hubbub is swirling round whether Abe’s gamble may fail because he has underestimated Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike.

The odds are long for Koike because Abe gave less than four weeks’ notice of the election and she is scrambling to find enough candidates to contest seats for the Diet.

Furthermore, excited headlines about whether Koike can become Japan’s first female prime minister miss that a right-wing coup is already beginning against democracy.

Japan’s political leaders clash over constitution, tax in televised election debate

Polls show 55 to 60 per cent of Japan do not want to change the pacifist constitution. But Abe makes constitutional change a central election plank, while Koike and her lieutenants demand that candidates support her hardline views on the constitution. Whoever wins on October 22, supporters of constitutional change are likely to have a two-thirds majority. “All” it would require is for Abe and Koike to get together to force the issue.
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Members of Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Forces take part in a rescue drill during joint military exercises with the US Army, on September 18. If Japan were to amend its constitution to remove the so-called “pacifist clause”, the status of its Self-Defence Forces would be unclear. Photo: Reuters
Members of Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Forces take part in a rescue drill during joint military exercises with the US Army, on September 18. If Japan were to amend its constitution to remove the so-called “pacifist clause”, the status of its Self-Defence Forces would be unclear. Photo: Reuters

Reliable barometers of the public mood suggest 60 per cent-plus of ordinary Japanese people are unhappy that Abe is spending public money on an election, but when asked what they will do, they shrug and mutter shouganai (“it can’t be helped”).

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Abe timed the election carefully. The opposition Democratic Party was fragmented; it enjoyed just 8 per cent support. To prevent an upstart challenger seizing the moment, Abe gave short notice and a 12-day campaign, which begins on October 10.

But Koike created a buzz as a rival long before she broke from Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party. It rejected her as its Tokyo governor candidate last year, so she won on her own, cementing her grip on the capital by crushing the LDP in prefectural elections in July.
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