Taiwan should be wary of the poisoned chalice of military exchanges with the US

The US Senate last month passed the National Defence Authorisation Act for the 2018 financial year. The bill requires the secretary of defence to submit an “assessment of the feasibility and advisability” of ports of call by the US Navy to Kaohsiung or any other suitable port in Taiwan, and the United States receiving ports of call by the Taiwanese navy in Hawaii, Guam and other locations.

This leaves US President Donald Trump in a dilemma: if he approves it, it will certainly destabilise US-China relations; China has already lodged official protests. But if he doesn’t, and even if he vetoes the bill, Congress may still override the decision with a two-thirds vote.

Almost certainly, he won’t approve it before his upcoming visit to China. Of all things he has learnt since taking office, one thing is sure: for China, everything could stop for the Taiwan issue. When he was president-elect, he took a call from Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen, a break with more than 35 years of US policy. China’s response was calm and measured – there was no need to pick a fight with a president-elect – reminding him that the “one China” policy is the political foundation of China-US relations.

Should an American naval ship visit Taiwan, or vice versa, it will be far more consequential than a phone call. China would take it as a revision of the agreement reached when the two countries decided to establish diplomatic ties in 1979. And one of the direct consequences could be on China-US cooperation on the North Korea nuclear issue, which Trump has been more than anxious to discuss with President Xi Jinping.