China has good reason to gloat over the decline of American influence and prestige in East Asia since the election of
Donald Trump. But gloating can be dangerous, as the US itself has found since the collapse of the Soviet Union impelled it to global overreach.
Firstly though, non-Americans stand open-mouthed at contradictions of Trump’s Asian tour and the US role at the Apec and Asean summits, and related meetings in Da Nang and Manila.
At times, Trump appeared far more interested in following events back in Washington than US strategic issues. Many were also amazed at the silence of US business groups, as represented by the likes of the American Chamber of Commerce, over his assaults on the open-market policies and multilateral trade deals which they have been urging on Asian governments for decades.
The series of meetings included an informal ministerial one in Manila of the so-called Quad – the four nations most concerned to form a
security bulwark against Chinese expansionism – Japan, Australia, India and the US. This represents the revival of the notion of the Indo-Pacific rather than Asia-Pacific as a strategic pivot. However, the Quad
makes no strategic sense if the lesser countries occupying the land and sea space between the two oceans are left feeling alienated or ignored by Trump – which they collectively were.
In Japan, Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe tried hard to flatter but commentary tended to focus on Trump’s preference for hamburgers with US beef and cheese over national food. South Korea was alienated before he arrived, both by his violent and crude remarks about the North and threats to US-Korea trade. No wonder that
China smartly moved in to end its own trade war against Seoul, in return for a cap on the THAAD anti-missile system deployment. China is also now providing a show of pressure on the North by sending Song Tao, the Communist Party’s international relations head, to
lecture his Pyongyang counterparts on comradely behaviour.
