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US-China relations
Opinion

As America falters and Europe declines, look east to see the future

Lord Green says a massive improvement in global well-being can accompany China’s ascension, and Hong Kong will be well-positioned to capitalise, provided potential regional minefields don’t blow up

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Lord Green says a massive improvement in global well-being can accompany China’s ascension, and Hong Kong will be well-positioned to capitalise, provided potential regional minefields don’t blow up
Lord Green
Under Donald Trump, unwillingness to let go of the reins of global leadership has morphed into an “America first” mentality. Illustration: Craig Stephens
Under Donald Trump, unwillingness to let go of the reins of global leadership has morphed into an “America first” mentality. Illustration: Craig Stephens
In 2014, former US national security adviser Stephen Hadley spoke to the Lowy Institute in Australia. “The truth is there is no real alternative to the United States as the global leader,” he said. “China doesn’t want the role … And to be frank, China would not be trusted by many countries – particularly in the Asia-Pacific – to be the global leader.”

Now, just three years on, the landscape looks very different. America has not gone away, of course: the dynamism and creativity of its economy should never be underestimated, and it would be unwise to short America for long. Yet, the fact is that America has not found it easy to share leadership on the world stage. And where leaders step away, others step in.

Trump humbled in China as Beijing visit underlines the new world order in Asia

Indeed, the American response to the shifting global order has been astonishingly unrealistic. This is not just the result of the actions of the Trump administration. It was, after all, Donald Trump’s predecessors who refused over the decades to push reform of the international economic order – and it was president Barack Obama who was so dismayed when China went ahead to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
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Under Trump, unwillingness to let go of the reins has morphed into “America first”. The result has been a lurch away from an open trade strategy to a crude protectionism which has abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership and is seeking to undermine Nafta.
Canadian, Mexican and American flags stand on display during the fifth round of North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations in Mexico City on November 21. Mexico is proposing to limit access to government contracts for US firms, in a sign that America's Nafta partners are willing to strike back against what they see as hardline proposals by the Trump administration. Photo: Bloomberg
Canadian, Mexican and American flags stand on display during the fifth round of North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations in Mexico City on November 21. Mexico is proposing to limit access to government contracts for US firms, in a sign that America's Nafta partners are willing to strike back against what they see as hardline proposals by the Trump administration. Photo: Bloomberg

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This is in stark contrast with China, the driving force behind Asia’s rise. Soon it will be the world’s largest economy once again. This much we are familiar with. But this is just a milestone: the best central forecast is that China will continue to grow rapidly for another generation. So as its income per head approaches Western levels, it will not just be the largest economy in the world – it will be by far the largest.

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