Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe can lead the ‘Asian century’, if China and Japan are able to bury the past
Chandran Nair says Xi and Abe, strong leaders of economic powerhouses, have a historic opportunity to shape the 21st century in Asia, as the US wavers. But first, they must recognise legitimate concerns and embrace the symbolic elements of Asian-style diplomacy
On the one hand, this shows how Asian countries continue to feel subservient to the US. Trump has criticised these countries at every turn, even during his trip earlier this month, insisting that they are taking advantage of America. In an ideal world, these countries would treat the US president with the same level of respect he has shown them.
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But strategic seduction still reveals a problem. If Asian stability is shaped by – or relies so much – on the US, to the point where Asian countries must bend over backwards to keep someone like Trump happy, is the status quo truly stable? Does it rely too much on the capriciousness of US politics? And is it outdated?
Even if you think America’s presence in Asia is a good thing, it is going to change, and undoubtedly get smaller. The US may bow out peacefully, or end up more like Trump: more muscular and zero-sum, where Washington doesn’t even pay lip service to “common solutions”, as it pursues “America First”.
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China is East Asia’s largest rising power, with a proven model of economic development and governance. Yet, many of its people remain poor, and its growth has had serious environmental repercussions. In this regard, Japan has much to offer. Also, China’s rapid rise – rightly or wrongly – is unnerving its neighbours, which Beijing sometimes seems blind to, and this is exploited by its detractors.
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Japan is a hub for modern business and technology. It is also a symbol of peace and tranquillity. Its post-war history, investments and popular culture make it a trusted partner and an admired country.
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Historical antagonism should not be enough to prevent a rapprochement. After all, France and Germany were able to come together as partners a few decades after the most devastating war between them. The Paris-Berlin relationship now defines Europe – even more so now, after Brexit.
Why can’t a relationship between Tokyo and Beijing do the same for Asia? One clear difference is that France and West Germany were both US allies, and so friendship between them did not threaten Washington. The same would not be true of a friendship between China and Japan. And therein lies the rub.
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This is where Abe and Xi, both newly strengthened, have a historic opportunity to shape the course of the 21st century in Asia. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity and they must seize it.
To do so, both sides will need to accept the other’s legitimate interests and concerns. A recent example is the understanding between Seoul and Beijing, announced just before Trump’s trip, concerning the US-provided THAAD missile defence system.
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For China and Japan to come together, each has to accept that the other has legitimate concerns. Beijing needs to give up its anger over the second world war. It must also offer some kind of guarantee in exchange for Japan loosening its agreement with the US. And Tokyo must accept that its strong American ties hinder its ability to act as an honest broker in East Asia and prevent its rise as a central and independent player in the region. It must understand that, to Beijing, a neighbour, Tokyo’s relationship with Washington, a distant ally, appears to be a threat.
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Sometimes pejoratively called “giving face”, it is an understanding that countries, governments and populations want to be treated seriously, shown great respect and, importantly, not bullied or insulted in the international arena. If the Vietnamese can roll out the red carpet for the US president, the Chinese can do the same for the Japanese, and vice versa.
Reciprocal visits by Xi and Abe should have all the pomp and circumstance of Trump’s visit. They may be the turning point that the region needs at the outset of “the Asian century.”
Chandran Nair is founder and CEO of the Global Institute For Tomorrow
