As Asean chair, Singapore may find its warming ties with China turning frosty once more

Mark J. Valencia says however skilled its diplomacy, the challenge of trying to forge a code of conduct agreement between Asean and Beijing, while keeping its relations with both China and the US on an even keel, may prove too much for the Southeast Asian country

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While some see this as a great opportunity for Singapore to demonstrate its diplomatic mettle, it could become the proverbial albatross around its diplomatic neck. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 5:45pm, 10 Jan 2018Updated: 11:54pm, 10 Jan 2018

This year, Singapore will have two leadership roles in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It will continue to serve as coordinator of the Asean-China dialogue, and, more importantly, it is this year’s Asean chair. The South China Sea imbroglio between Asean claimants – backed by the US – and China will be a principal issue to be managed during its term. This will put Singapore under considerable pressure from both China and the United States as they vie for political control of the region.

Some think Singapore is well positioned to balance, hedge and manoeuvre between the two powers on behalf of Asean. This may be so. But the job will be very difficult and failure may have longer-term adverse effects on Singapore’s relations with one or the other – or even both. Moreover, its reputation for balance and diplomatic skill may be tarnished.

China is concerned that Singapore will try to “internationalise” the South China Sea issues, which Beijing wants confined to the countries directly involved. The US wants the issue settled peacefully, according to the existing international rules and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. More to the point, Asean itself is split on the issues and is likely to remain so, despite Singapore’s best efforts to forge unity vis-à-vis that of China.

With Singapore in the hot seat, the stakes are high for Asean

China has managed to garner some support from Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines for its position that the South China Sea disputes should be negotiated by the countries directly concerned. However, the US, by strongly supporting the original Philippine position and that of Vietnam against China, has contributed to Asean disunity on this issue.

Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin meets Singapore Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs Chee Wee Kiong in Singapore, on January 17 last year. Photo: MFA Singapore

Singapore has felt China’s wrath before regarding its position on the South China Sea issues. In April 2016, Singapore criticised China for “meddling” in Asean’s internal affairs. China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin responded that such misconceptions “are not beneficial to the Sino-Asean relationship and cooperation”. In September 2016, the People’s Daily said in an editorial that Singapore “has obviously taken sides over South China Sea issues while emphasising it does not”. China’s influential Global Times said that the special relationship between China and Singapore was being damaged by mistrust regarding the South China Sea issues.

Blow-by-blow account of the China-Singapore spat over Global Times’ South China Sea report

It has become increasingly difficult for Singapore to argue that it is neutral between China and the US on the South China Sea. As part of an“enhanced defence relationship”, it hosts top-of-the-line littoral combat ships from the US as well as its P-8A intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance planes, which track China’s submarines. China occasionally intercepts US spy planes with jet fighters in what the U|S calls an “unsafe” manner.

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