Another flu pandemic is coming, and the world isn’t prepared

Joseph Chamie says the devastating flu pandemic of 100 years ago was brought about by cramped conditions from the first world war – creating uncomfortable parallels with our urban environments and worsening flu outbreaks. The best way to prepare is to follow public health guidelines from a decade-and-a-half ago, but most nations haven’t done so

Reading Time:3 minutes

Hong Kong Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan receives a vaccination in October during a visit to the Shau Kei Wan Jockey Club General Outpatient Clinic while checking the progress on the implementation of the government vaccination programme for 2017-18. Photo: Sam Tsang

Published: 3:33pm, 19 Feb 2018Updated: 7:21pm, 19 Feb 2018

A century ago, people woke up ill in the morning and fell dead by evening. Considered the deadliest pandemic in human history, global influenza infected a third of humanity, killing no less than 50 million and perhaps as many as 100 million people.

The pandemic coincided with the first world war. Following the initial outbreak, massive troop deployments in densely packed quarters and numerous civilian travellers facilitated the spread of the virus to every corner of the globe.

In a typical season, the elderly, young children and those with chronic medical conditions generally face the highest risk of serious complications and death. The 1918 pandemic, in contrast, disproportionately affected healthy young adults, aged 20 to 40. Young adult men in the military, especially those in close quarters in frontline trenches, were hit hard. A year after its initial outbreak, the global pandemic had killed more than double the 10 million who had died in first world war.

Influenza/pneumonia was the top killer in 1900 for the United States, accounting for 12 per cent of all deaths. By the beginning of the 21st century, deaths due to influenza and pneumonia had declined substantially. In 2015, the top 10 causes of death worldwide did not include influenza/pneumonia.

Still, seasonal influenza sickens millions, and this year appears to be worse than usual.

Select Voice

Choose your listening speed

Get through articles 2x faster

1.25x

250 WPM

Slow

Average

Fast

00:0000:00

1.25x