As the US takes the leash off nuclear weapons, how will China react?

The Trump administration’s recently released nuclear posture review raised eyebrows. The review includes developing low-yield warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles and, in the longer term, new submarine-launched nuclear cruise missiles, along with the potential launching of nuclear strikes in response to a non-nuclear attack on the United States or its allies.

The development of a low-yield warhead is primarily because of Russia. The administration’s concern is that, in a conflict in Eastern Europe, Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons first because of its relative weakness in conventional arms. The Russians could therefore force the US into a “suicide or surrender” dilemma, eventually leading Washington to back down. Therefore, the Pentagon needs to develop low-yield warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles that could penetrate Russian defences to deter Moscow from its “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear strategy.

The Bush and Obama administrations reduced the role of nuclear weapons considerably. Championing a nuclear-free world, Barack Obama renounced development of new nuclear weapons. It is a sea change that Trump could opt for a nuclear response against a non-nuclear attack. According to senior administration officials, the situation includes an enemy attack on civilian populations, critical infrastructure or nuclear command and control sites. But as revealed by The New York Times, it would most probably come in response to a cyberattack.