Sinophobia should not define the US approach to China or its ‘emperor’ Xi
Andrew K. P. Leung says that despite the extensions to Xi Jinping’s power, there are still protocols and procedures limiting what he can do, and there are still ways of engaging China other than in destructive confrontation
The trade deficits feed the anger over decades of trying but failing to shape China according to the West’s values. China is seen as posing an increasing challenge to American supremacy and prosperity.
These conflicts are characteristic of a looming Thucydides trap, in which an existing superpower is drawn into conflict with a perceived challenger. They also reflect a clash of two different value systems vying for global influence.
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But decisions are unlikely to be Xi’s one-man show, as he sets great store on expert groups. Important policy decisions go through drafts and, where appropriate, public consultations. Anything less would result in social or political repercussions.
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China will continue to enhance military capabilities to safeguard national security, but this doesn’t equate to military adventurism or hegemony. Military hegemony doesn’t work in a post-nuclear hi-tech world of mutually assured destruction. China stands to benefit from a more peaceful, cooperative international environment.
China’s “authoritarian” one-party model is widely opposed. With decades of unprecedented achievements, China is unlikely to copy the West’s multi-party democracy, with all its fault lines. But whether a single political party or many parties, there can only be one government. Provided it substantially improves people’s lives and continues to reform itself in response to changing aspirations, it will enjoy legitimacy. Pew Research Centre annual surveys since 2010 show that more than 80 per cent of Chinese are satisfied with their country’s direction.
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China’s development, culture and history are unique. One risks seeing only dystopia using Western lenses. “America first” coercion violating international agreements and multilateral rules undermines US leadership. As China is economically embedded in many countries, coercion is unlikely to be effective or profitable.
Andrew K. P. Leung is an international and independent China specialist based in Hong Kong