Resolve the North Korea standoff with economic cooperation and everyone is a winner

Who is winning the new “great game” on the Korean peninsula – North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with his nuclear diplomacy, South Korean President Moon Jae-in with his “sunshine policy”, US President Donald Trump with his scare tactics, Chinese President Xi Jinping with his carrot and stick approach or Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with his focus on finance?

Political analysts are indulging in speculation as to who is outsmarting whom in the competition to find a solution to the decades-old Korea problem. Yet the ultimate winner (if there is one) will be none of them individually but all collectively.

If ever there were a win-win situation, it would be the promised birth of a new economic zone in Northeast Asia in the wake of the current flurry of diplomatic activity. Even if no dramatic breakthrough is achieved, reverting to the status quo is unlikely given the changing balance of power in East Asia.

The Trump-Kim summit scheduled for May could fail – or not take place at all – resulting in a renewal of tensions and limiting the chances of a meeting between Kim and Abe. These would be serious setbacks but Trump seems anxious to declare a “done deal” and may well compromise on the nuclear disarmament issue, forcing Japan to do likewise.

Relations, meanwhile, between North and South Korea appear set for several years of improvement (unless Moon is replaced in South Korea’s often volatile political environment), and both Moon and Kim appear to have mended fences with Xi’s China. Against this backdrop, it is not too optimistic to see light in the Eastern sky if not yet a full dawn.

This light could reveal unseen implications in recent events. The North Korea issue is usually viewed in terms of security, and whether Northeast Asia can live with a rogue state that could precipitate a nuclear confrontation, or a collapse sending floods of refugees into the region. The economic dimensions are often overlooked and yet are potentially huge.