China, US and South Korea must harmonise their North Korea strategies, or risk being outplayed by Kim Jong-un

Kristian McGuire says if the nuclear crisis is to be resolved, Beijing, Washington and Seoul must demonstrate a unity of purpose when negotiating with the North Korean leader. This cannot happen if one is trying to sideline another

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A TV screen at the Seoul Railway Station shows images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right), South Korean President Moon Jae-in (centre) and US President Donald Trump in a news report, on March 7. Seoul, Washington and Beijing should focus on producing a settlement to the North Korean nuclear issue that is acceptable to all. Photo: AP

Published: 12:15pm, 5 Apr 2018Updated: 9:56pm, 5 Apr 2018

No one knows for certain how ongoing US and South Korean efforts to engage North Korea will play out. What is clear, though, is that a speedy resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue is anything but guaranteed.

Therefore, Washington, Beijing and Seoul would be wise to harmonise their North Korea strategies in preparation for drawn-out negotiations with the North, or, worse yet, a complete breakdown of the engagement efforts.

Failure to properly prepare for such eventualities will put the three parties in weak negotiating positions vis-à-vis Pyongyang and greatly diminish the odds of reaching a lasting settlement to the issue.

The United States, China and South Korea are currently pursuing three different North Korea strategies. Washington’s maximum pressure and engagement strategy is moderately risk-tolerant, holistic (in that it takes advantage of a wide range of economic, diplomatic and military tools to exert pressure on Pyongyang), and balances robust coercive measures with periodic attempts at engagement.

In contrast, Beijing’s North Korea strategy is risk-averse, limited in scope (Beijing prefers to only use economic and diplomatic sanctions approved by the UN Security Council to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearise), and emphasises engagement over pressure tactics.

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